Abstracts

October 2007

F-Gas-Emissions 2004/2005 and Uncertainty Assessment of German Data (ZSE)

Report for the German Umweltbundesamt (German Federal Environmental Agency)
Ufoplan No 205 41 217/01
Author: Dr. Winfried Schwarz


The German Environmental Agency has installed the Centralised System of Emissions (ZSE) to satisfy the requirements of international greenhouse gas reporting pursuant to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This study presents the 2004 and 2005 emissions data on the fluorinated greenhouse gases HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 (F-gases) to be entered into the ZSE.

First part. In 2005, emissions of F-gases amounted to 15.2 million t CO2 equivalent; this is 1.5 million t more than in 2003. PFCs have been decreasing from 1995 onwards. Emissions of SF6, which had decreased before 2002, are increasing again from 2003. HFC emissions continue rising since 1995; now they represent almost two thirds of the total German F-gas emissions. However, only refrigeration and air conditioning are still substantial applications of HFCs, while in the formerly large application sectors of CFCs and HCFCs, such as hard foam, fire extinguishers, and aerosols, natural fluids are being used widely, today. In stationary refrigeration and mobile air conditioning, the upward trend of HFCs in consumption and emissions is still ongoing in 2004 and 2005.

  • Section I of the first part of this report shows the F-gas emissions data for 2004 and 2005, in addition to those on 1995, 2000 and 2003.
  • In section II the data sources of the 2004 and 2005 survey are documented.
  • Section III presents the F-gas emissions 1995 - 2005 in detailed tables, by individual sectors.

Second part. Estimates of uncertainties associated with the annual emissions data are an essential element of the emission inventories required by the Framework Convention on Climate Change as well as the ZSE. This study quantifies the uncertainties as relative deviations from the input values of the ZSE. The input value is always 1, and its upward and downward deviations are fractions of 1. The uncertainty assessment of complex activity data and emission factors complies with the mode of calculation required by the 1999 and 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. The argumentation is mostly based on expert judgements given either by external sector sectors or by experts from Öko-Recherche. Where empirical studies are available, statistical standard methods could be used for uncertainty assessments. Uncertainty analysis is carried out in all the 37 application sectors of fluorinated greenhouse gases.


Keywords: Fluorinated Greenhouse Gases; Uncertainties; Emissions; Reporting; ZSE; Activity data; Emission factors; Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs); Perfluorocarbons (PFCs); Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF6).

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